Gold prices climbed above $3,800 an ounce for the first time ever on Monday, driven by a weaker dollar and growing expectations of further US rate cuts. Data showed on Friday the US PCE inflation data came in line with expectations, reinforcing bets that the Federal Reserve could continue easing policy later this year. Markets are currently pricing in a 90% chance of a rate cut in October and about a 65% probability of an additional move in December. Investors look ahead to a slew of US economic releases, including job openings, private payrolls, the ISM manufacturing PMI, and the non-farm payrolls report for more clues on the economy's health, while also monitoring the risk of a potential US government shutdown. On the trade front, President Donald Trump last week announced a new round of tariffs targeting imported drugs, trucks, and furniture, set to take effect on October 1, adding further uncertainty to the economic outlook.
Silver rose more than 1% to above $46.5 per ounce on Monday, reaching a new 14-year peak as the dollar weakened amid rising risks of a US government shutdown. Investors also traded cautiously ahead of key US data this week that could shape the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. Friday’s PCE report showed inflation pressures remained steady, reinforcing expectations that the Fed has room to cut rates further this year. Markets now price in about a 90% chance of a rate cut next month and roughly 65% odds of another in December. Supply-demand imbalances added support, with the Silver Institute projecting a fifth straight annual deficit in 2025 as demand outpaces supply by more than 100 Moz, driving further inventory drawdowns.
