WTI crude oil futures rose 2.8% to settle at $68.40 per barrel on Friday, rebounding from a 2.5% drop in the previous session and logging a 0.6% weekly gain, as traders weighed near-term supply tightness against longer-term surplus concerns. Despite the IEA forecasting a potential surplus later this year, strong summer travel demand and high refinery runs are supporting current prices. Russia’s pledge to offset overproduction and expectations of record Saudi crude shipments to China in August added to short-term bullish sentiment. However, the IEA’s upward revision to supply growth and lowered demand projections point to a softer balance later in the year. Longer-term demand uncertainty was echoed by OPEC, which cut its global oil demand outlook for 2026–2029 due to slower Chinese growth. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks remain in focus, with markets bracing for potential new US sanctions on Russia amid growing tensions over Ukraine.
US natural gas futures rose toward $3.4/MMBtu, rebounding from a 6-week low on July 9, driven by rising LNG export flows and forecasts for hotter-than-average weather, which is expected to increase demand through late July. Gas flows to the eight major US LNG export plants averaged 15.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in July so far, as several facilities resumed operations following maintenance and outages. On Thursday, LNG feedgas was on track to hit a 10-week high of 16.0 bcfd, with flows to Cheniere Energy’s Corpus Christi plant rising from 1.5 bcfd to 2.2 bcfd. Also, warmer weather forecasts across the Lower 48 states suggest higher cooling demand will persist. Meanwhile, a federal report showed a 53 bcf injection into storage for the week ending July 4, matching the five-year average.
